In August 2023, the Pentagon announced plans to significantly ramp up production of durable, autonomous military drones, with the explicit intention of staying ahead of the growing threat posed by China's defense build-up. The Pentagon’s drone program, Replicator, was introduced during the National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies conference in Washington, DC.
Speaking on the future of American drone technology, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks stated that the program will streamline and expedite the military’s gradual transition into innovative drone development. She specifically stated that the program would produce drones that are “small, smart, cheap, and many.”
Hicks joins Christopher Grady, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in heading up the Replicator program. The program will be supported by the Defense Innovation Unit, which is headed by Director Doug Beck. It has been developed with two guiding principles in mind.
First, China’s primary advantage as a manufacturer of military drones can be found in the raw production numbers. “Good enough” has indeed been the mantra for Chinese drone manufacturers in recent years, and the nation’s cheap drone technology has dominated the global market. Saudi Arabia, Myanmar, Iraq, and Ethiopia are just a few of the countries around the world utilizing Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
While cheap mass production has helped China achieve a superior market share, the technology remains reliable: Iraqi authorities have carried out over 260 air raids against ISIL, or ISIS, since mid-2018, with a success rate of just under 100 percent. With this in mind, Hicks and the rest of the Replicator team have determined that innovation and high-quality components are the only paths forward, as opposed to trying to match China on a pound-for-pound production level.
An exhibition in October 2023 demonstrated the latest in Chinese drone technology. The UAV Industry Development Conference showed off over 300 new drone models, including a super lightweight suicide drone that can be launched by a single infantry soldier.
Second, the military minds behind the Replicator program firmly believe that quality drone systems are the future of modern warfare. The ongoing war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance and near-ubiquity of autonomous systems on the battlefield. Drones have been used on both sides not just for attacks but for targeting and reconnaissance as well.
The Pentagon made it clear during the initial Replicator announcement that American innovators should view the program as a “generational challenge” to compete with Chinese drone production. Replicator will still target a high production volume, but with drones that are more versatile in function and more difficult to plan for. The program will also emphasize the production of smaller drone models.
Pentagon officials said that, while more details would be forthcoming, Replicator was being pursued on an expedited timeline. The program will be carried out under a hedge strategy, which will allow the Department of Defense to translate commercial innovation into large-scale military operations.
The use of the hedge strategy has already gained the support of the House, with the 2024 defense budget reserving $1 billion for low-cost drones and related support systems. The Department of Defense has launched at least 685 related initiatives since 2021. Replicator leaders plan on merging several of these projects and investments as part of the program, which means several early stages will involve the reallocation of existing funds.
